UK grocery inflation has slowed to 4.0% in the four weeks to 25 January 2026, marking the lowest rate since April 2025 and offering households modest relief after prolonged cost pressures.

Major supermarkets including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Lidl, Aldi, Asda and Morrisons are reporting stronger demand for own-brand staples as shoppers continue to prioritise value.

While prices remain above pre-2022 levels, the pace of increases has eased, helping families manage weekly budgets more effectively.

What the 4.0% Inflation Rate Means

A 4.0% grocery inflation rate means food prices are still rising year-on-year — but at a slower pace than in recent months.

Key developments include:

• Inflation down from 4.3% in late 2025
• Lowest grocery inflation level in nine months
• Value (own-brand) products now account for over half of supermarket sales
• Overall grocery sales up 3.8% in value, though volumes remain cautious

Private-label goods now represent more than 50% of supermarket purchases as households look to reduce spending without sacrificing essentials.

Why Grocery Prices Are Easing

Several factors are contributing to stabilisation:

1. Commodity Price Stability

Global prices for wheat, dairy and vegetable oils have levelled off after volatility in 2024–25.

2. Supermarket Competition

Discounters such as Lidl and Aldi have intensified price competition, forcing larger chains to price-match on staples.

3. Improved Domestic Yields

Strong UK harvests for potatoes, carrots and grains have reduced wholesale costs.

4. Energy Cost Moderation

Lower wholesale energy prices have eased production and transport pressures.

Analysts forecast grocery inflation could ease further towards 3% by late 2026, though weather and global supply factors remain risks.

Cheapest Staple Foods in Early 2026

Pasta and Rice

• Own-brand pasta multipacks down nearly 7% year-on-year
• Rice steady around £1.12 per kg

Tinned Goods

• Tinned tomatoes and pulses under 50p
• Budget-friendly for meal planning

Bread and Oats

• Own-brand porridge prices falling 2–5%
• Bakery promotions frequently available

These staples allow families to prepare meals for under £1 per serving when combined with seasonal vegetables.

Fresh Produce: Strong Seasonal Value

UK-grown winter vegetables are leading price drops:

• Potatoes around 84p per kg
• Carrots near 70p per kg
• Onions and cabbage at low seasonal rates
• Apples and pears competitively priced in-season

Bumper domestic crops have helped keep produce affordable.

Protein and Dairy Price Trends

Protein costs have moderated compared to 2025 peaks:

• Chicken breast club packs down around 8%
• Milk approximately 55p per pint
• Eggs stabilised after previous supply shocks
• Cheese and yoghurt multipacks competitively priced

Plant-based alternatives remain steady, offering similar pricing to dairy equivalents in many cases.

Beverages and Snacks

While tea and chocolate have seen selective price increases, value alternatives remain widely available.

• Own-brand tea around £2 per 160 bags
• Soft drink multipacks priced competitively
• Popcorn kernels and value crisps popular budget swaps

Selective shopping remains key in discretionary categories.

Supermarket Comparison Snapshot (January 2026)

Item	Lowest Typical Retailer	Avg Price	YoY Trend
Pasta (1kg)	Aldi	£5.26 (multipack)	Down
Potatoes (kg)	Lidl	£0.84	Stable
Chicken (kg)	Tesco	£3.50	Down
Milk (2 pints)	Asda	£1.10	Down
Eggs (dozen)	Sainsbury’s	£2.50	Stable
Carrots (kg)	Morrisons	£0.70	Down
Rice (1kg)	Aldi	£1.12	Stable
Cheese (kg)	Lidl	£3.50	Slight dip
Bananas (kg)	Tesco	£0.79	Slight dip
Tinned tomatoes	Asda	£0.45	Down

Discounters continue to lead on everyday staples, though loyalty pricing at larger chains narrows the gap.

Regional Differences

• Scotland benefits from competitive oat and potato pricing
• Northern Ireland sees dairy advantages due to cross-border supply
• London continues to carry higher prices on imported produce
• Northern England regions show stronger discounter penetration

However, staple pricing remains broadly consistent nationwide.

How Families Can Maximise Savings

Households can stretch budgets further by:

• Choosing own-brand equivalents
• Comparing unit prices
• Using loyalty schemes
• Shopping midweek for reduced items
• Planning meals around seasonal vegetables
• Bulk-buying dry goods

Meal planning around discounted proteins and seasonal produce remains one of the most effective strategies.

Broader Household Impact

Lower grocery inflation offers modest relief, particularly for families facing:

• Mortgage and rent pressures
• Energy cost volatility
• Wage growth below inflation

However, with inflation still positive, budgets remain tight and value shopping continues to dominate behaviour.

FAQs

What is the current UK grocery inflation rate?

4.0% for the four weeks to 25 January 2026.

Are food prices falling?

Some staples are cheaper year-on-year, but overall prices are still rising more slowly.

Which supermarket is cheapest?

Discounters such as Aldi and Lidl continue to lead on many staples.

Is inflation expected to fall further?

Analysts predict a possible easing towards 3% later in 2026.

Are dairy prices stabilising?

Yes, milk and eggs have moderated compared to 2025 peaks.

Is this relief nationwide?

Yes, though regional price differences remain.